<div dir="ltr">This is very interesting reading.  On the subject of learning about and working against cognitive biases, I also like the Center for Applied Rationality, <a href="http://appliedrationality.org/">http://appliedrationality.org/</a>.</div>
<div class="gmail_extra"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:31 AM, William Wade <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:willm.wade@gmail.com" target="_blank">willm.wade@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_extra">This is even more off topic, but people are really bad at predicting the future (often worse than a coin toss). This is one of the issues that the Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program is trying to work on. (Best place to learn about it is: <a href="http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=87" target="_blank">http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=87</a> which is one of the teams.) Some of these teams are predicting events well due to training regarding biases, some research, and a fair number of people.</div>


<div class="gmail_extra"><br></div><div class="gmail_extra">Also on the subject, although not always the best source, generally a good lay source: <a href="http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/" target="_blank">http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/</a></div>
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<div class="gmail_extra"><br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ub3ratl4sf00@gmail.com" target="_blank">ub3ratl4sf00@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>


<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;padding-left:1ex">Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did actually.</blockquote>


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