[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Aaron welch n2nightfall at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 23:01:24 UTC 2013


No one thus far has suggested that Bitcoin could or would ever "As far as
being a valid replacement for the US Dollar or the EU...that is stretching
methinks".  It would be foolish to think that it could at this point in
time.

-AW



On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 6:54 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:

> I acknowledged that people choose to derail the system for their own
> benefit, see my statement about the banking industry, but the idea that
> economists, especially scholarly economists, are behind that is rather an
> odd position to take, as its been more industry related than economists
> specifically misleading people. Lobbying to remove regulations that prevent
> such foolishness are usually lobbied for by wealthy individuals or
> corporations, not economists.
>
> And as much as there is a fanfare about Bitcoins, its a neat system I
> agree and may even provide some information we can use.
>
> As far as being a valid replacement for the US Dollar or the EU...that is
> stretching methinks.
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 6:15 PM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> I was not meaning to shut you down, but economics is literally about the
>> flow of money based on people hoarding/saving/spending.  PEOPLE are very
>> volatile elements in a finite element system and though chaos theory does
>> help with some of the issues, there are still plenty more.  What you seem
>> to be missing is the fact that there are people who choose to derail the
>> system for their own benefit or just to screw the system.  The fact that
>> our current economic systems do not handle this particularly well is why I
>> am interested in seeing what Bitcoins and similar currency do in the long
>> run.
>>
>> -AW
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 5:36 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> I guess I don't, since I'm talking theory...
>>>
>>> Well, I think that is enough for me today.
>>> On Apr 15, 2013 4:09 PM, "Aaron Welch" <n2nightfall at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I am very sad that you would send me an email stating all that stuff.
>>>>  It just shows how little you understand about how economics actually works
>>>> in a capitalist economy in the digital age.  Information is power and is
>>>> more valuable than money in today's economy.
>>>>
>>>> -AW
>>>>
>>>> On Apr 15, 2013, at 2:57 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> If you are depending on media organizations for financial advice,
>>>> specifically CNN, MSNBC, Fox, etc, then I can understand why you might be
>>>> upset with economic science. This is pretty common for all the sciences,
>>>> people would rather ask their politicians or news organizations if the
>>>> Theory of Evolution/Big Bang Theory/ Global Warming is real than the actual
>>>> scientists.
>>>>
>>>> However, the assumption that a system we create and change is totally
>>>> within our control is rather false, otherwise car accidents would be a
>>>> thing of the past and house fires would be a lot less common. Every little
>>>> variable counts, and economics is no different, you could be as rich as you
>>>> want and there is a good chance that things can go totally against you due
>>>> to minor changes outside your control.
>>>>
>>>> Once again, Chaos Theory helps us understand why that is.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 2:30 PM, Aaron Welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Apples and oranges Stephen.  There is no psychological element to
>>>>> climate change.  Human behavior cannot immediately effect a total collapse
>>>>> of the climate.  The climate system functions without our input and the
>>>>> economy is driven by our choices and values.
>>>>>
>>>>> -AW
>>>>>
>>>>> On Apr 15, 2013, at 1:05 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Lets put it this way:
>>>>>
>>>>> When the Glass Steagall Act was struck down, it was already estimated
>>>>> by many economists that it would lead to a financial crisis in the future,
>>>>> and while it took some time for it to happen and they couldn't estimated
>>>>> EXACTLY what would happen.
>>>>>
>>>>> Same thing could be said of Climate Change: Science has been
>>>>> proclaiming it would happen for years, with much booing and anger from the
>>>>> public at large, but now we are starting to see the effects and the models
>>>>> are beginning to line up, doesn't make climate science any less valid.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> "Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)"
>>>>>> Are you attempting a forecast? To the stake!
>>>>>> (Reminds me also that I love the new player in the weather site and
>>>>>> api business: forecast.io )
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM, kitepilot at kitepilot.com <
>>>>>> kitepilot at kitepilot.com> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> From economics to aviation...
>>>>>>> Pilots *KNOW* that the weather forecast is nothing else than a
>>>>>>> horoscope with numbers.
>>>>>>> <duck>
>>>>>>> Does that equalize the 'Science of Economy' with the 'Science of
>>>>>>> Astrology'?
>>>>>>> Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)
>>>>>>> </duck>
>>>>>>> ET
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Randy Yates writes:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of
>>>>>>>> them.
>>>>>>>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts
>>>>>>>> about
>>>>>>>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super
>>>>>>>> computer
>>>>>>>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors
>>>>>>>> that come
>>>>>>>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural
>>>>>>>> disasters
>>>>>>>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn
>>>>>>>> economics
>>>>>>>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about
>>>>>>>> something. All
>>>>>>>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't
>>>>>>>> see it
>>>>>>>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk
>>>>>>>> about
>>>>>>>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few
>>>>>>>>> economists did
>>>>>>>>> actually.
>>>>>>>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all,
>>>>>>>>> they
>>>>>>>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that
>>>>>>>>> they could
>>>>>>>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a
>>>>>>>>> quick buck.
>>>>>>>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>>>>>>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place
>>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing
>>>>>>>>> intentional
>>>>>>>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>>>>>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all
>>>>>>>>> experts
>>>>>>>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is
>>>>>>>>> very
>>>>>>>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong
>>>>>>>>> at some
>>>>>>>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying
>>>>>>>>> systems like
>>>>>>>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing
>>>>>>>>> despite their
>>>>>>>>> credentials'
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <
>>>>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that
>>>>>>>>>> much
>>>>>>>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first
>>>>>>>>>> stock
>>>>>>>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth
>>>>>>>>>> today after
>>>>>>>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>>>>>>> -AW
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>
>>>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?**q=inventor%20committed%20to%**
>>>>>>>>>>> 20mental%20institution<https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution>
>>>>>>>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>>>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>>>>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall
>>>>>>>>>>> things based
>>>>>>>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some
>>>>>>>>>>> point you
>>>>>>>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You
>>>>>>>>>>> die, you
>>>>>>>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>>>>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>>>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my
>>>>>>>>>>> biggest
>>>>>>>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask
>>>>>>>>>>> yet, is if
>>>>>>>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What
>>>>>>>>>>> happens when
>>>>>>>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point?
>>>>>>>>>>> Bitcoins
>>>>>>>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's
>>>>>>>>>>> questions
>>>>>>>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this
>>>>>>>>>>> whole
>>>>>>>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>>>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>>>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember
>>>>>>>>>>> back to
>>>>>>>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs
>>>>>>>>>>> you of
>>>>>>>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <
>>>>>>>>>>>> lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> here,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> usually
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> mean look
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago, the amount
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> thousands of dollars!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> bad.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> criticize it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> spend their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> its a waste and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> into account.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> matter how often
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for long or
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> listen to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reflect a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.**com/showthread.php?threadid=*
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> *3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost<http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on it.  They
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> horrid bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a while
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impressive returns.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as payment for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> here, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> another, "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> onto the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> plausible denial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> in the form of a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> but that can be
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> large number of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> live on a country
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> pick them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> books,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> instant-success headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "new money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> to say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> by leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chattanooga virtual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Google reads my email!
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>>>>>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>>>>>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>>>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>>>>>>>>>> ______________________________**_________________
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>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>> Google reads my email!
>>>>>>>>
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>>
>> --
>> Aaron Welch
>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>> 423-505-9999
>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>>
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-- 
Aaron Welch
Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
423-505-9999
n2nightfall at gmail.com
"Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
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