[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Stephen Kraus ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 22:54:08 UTC 2013


I acknowledged that people choose to derail the system for their own
benefit, see my statement about the banking industry, but the idea that
economists, especially scholarly economists, are behind that is rather an
odd position to take, as its been more industry related than economists
specifically misleading people. Lobbying to remove regulations that prevent
such foolishness are usually lobbied for by wealthy individuals or
corporations, not economists.

And as much as there is a fanfare about Bitcoins, its a neat system I agree
and may even provide some information we can use.

As far as being a valid replacement for the US Dollar or the EU...that is
stretching methinks.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 6:15 PM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com> wrote:

> I was not meaning to shut you down, but economics is literally about the
> flow of money based on people hoarding/saving/spending.  PEOPLE are very
> volatile elements in a finite element system and though chaos theory does
> help with some of the issues, there are still plenty more.  What you seem
> to be missing is the fact that there are people who choose to derail the
> system for their own benefit or just to screw the system.  The fact that
> our current economic systems do not handle this particularly well is why I
> am interested in seeing what Bitcoins and similar currency do in the long
> run.
>
> -AW
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 5:36 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> I guess I don't, since I'm talking theory...
>>
>> Well, I think that is enough for me today.
>> On Apr 15, 2013 4:09 PM, "Aaron Welch" <n2nightfall at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> I am very sad that you would send me an email stating all that stuff.
>>>  It just shows how little you understand about how economics actually works
>>> in a capitalist economy in the digital age.  Information is power and is
>>> more valuable than money in today's economy.
>>>
>>> -AW
>>>
>>> On Apr 15, 2013, at 2:57 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> If you are depending on media organizations for financial advice,
>>> specifically CNN, MSNBC, Fox, etc, then I can understand why you might be
>>> upset with economic science. This is pretty common for all the sciences,
>>> people would rather ask their politicians or news organizations if the
>>> Theory of Evolution/Big Bang Theory/ Global Warming is real than the actual
>>> scientists.
>>>
>>> However, the assumption that a system we create and change is totally
>>> within our control is rather false, otherwise car accidents would be a
>>> thing of the past and house fires would be a lot less common. Every little
>>> variable counts, and economics is no different, you could be as rich as you
>>> want and there is a good chance that things can go totally against you due
>>> to minor changes outside your control.
>>>
>>> Once again, Chaos Theory helps us understand why that is.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 2:30 PM, Aaron Welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> Apples and oranges Stephen.  There is no psychological element to
>>>> climate change.  Human behavior cannot immediately effect a total collapse
>>>> of the climate.  The climate system functions without our input and the
>>>> economy is driven by our choices and values.
>>>>
>>>> -AW
>>>>
>>>> On Apr 15, 2013, at 1:05 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Lets put it this way:
>>>>
>>>> When the Glass Steagall Act was struck down, it was already estimated
>>>> by many economists that it would lead to a financial crisis in the future,
>>>> and while it took some time for it to happen and they couldn't estimated
>>>> EXACTLY what would happen.
>>>>
>>>> Same thing could be said of Climate Change: Science has been
>>>> proclaiming it would happen for years, with much booing and anger from the
>>>> public at large, but now we are starting to see the effects and the models
>>>> are beginning to line up, doesn't make climate science any less valid.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> "Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)"
>>>>> Are you attempting a forecast? To the stake!
>>>>> (Reminds me also that I love the new player in the weather site and
>>>>> api business: forecast.io )
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM, kitepilot at kitepilot.com <
>>>>> kitepilot at kitepilot.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> From economics to aviation...
>>>>>> Pilots *KNOW* that the weather forecast is nothing else than a
>>>>>> horoscope with numbers.
>>>>>> <duck>
>>>>>> Does that equalize the 'Science of Economy' with the 'Science of
>>>>>> Astrology'?
>>>>>> Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)
>>>>>> </duck>
>>>>>> ET
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Randy Yates writes:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of
>>>>>>> them.
>>>>>>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts
>>>>>>> about
>>>>>>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super
>>>>>>> computer
>>>>>>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors
>>>>>>> that come
>>>>>>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural
>>>>>>> disasters
>>>>>>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn
>>>>>>> economics
>>>>>>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about something.
>>>>>>> All
>>>>>>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't
>>>>>>> see it
>>>>>>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk
>>>>>>> about
>>>>>>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few
>>>>>>>> economists did
>>>>>>>> actually.
>>>>>>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all,
>>>>>>>> they
>>>>>>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that they
>>>>>>>> could
>>>>>>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a quick
>>>>>>>> buck.
>>>>>>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>>>>>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place
>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing
>>>>>>>> intentional
>>>>>>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>>>>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all
>>>>>>>> experts
>>>>>>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is very
>>>>>>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong
>>>>>>>> at some
>>>>>>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying
>>>>>>>> systems like
>>>>>>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing despite
>>>>>>>> their
>>>>>>>> credentials'
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <
>>>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that
>>>>>>>>> much
>>>>>>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first
>>>>>>>>> stock
>>>>>>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth today
>>>>>>>>> after
>>>>>>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>>>>>> -AW
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>
>>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?**q=inventor%20committed%20to%**
>>>>>>>>>> 20mental%20institution<https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution>
>>>>>>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>>>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall
>>>>>>>>>> things based
>>>>>>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some point
>>>>>>>>>> you
>>>>>>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You
>>>>>>>>>> die, you
>>>>>>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>>>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my biggest
>>>>>>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask
>>>>>>>>>> yet, is if
>>>>>>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What
>>>>>>>>>> happens when
>>>>>>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point?
>>>>>>>>>> Bitcoins
>>>>>>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's
>>>>>>>>>> questions
>>>>>>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this
>>>>>>>>>> whole
>>>>>>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember
>>>>>>>>>> back to
>>>>>>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs
>>>>>>>>>> you of
>>>>>>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <
>>>>>>>>>>> lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people
>>>>>>>>>>>>> here,
>>>>>>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are
>>>>>>>>>>>>> usually
>>>>>>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I
>>>>>>>>>>>>> mean look
>>>>>>>>>>>>> at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ago, the amount
>>>>>>>>>>>>> he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of thousands
>>>>>>>>>>>>> of dollars!
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that
>>>>>>>>>>>>> bad.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> criticize it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> spend their
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say its
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> a waste and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> into account.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it is
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> matter how often
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> long or
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> listen to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reflect a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.**com/showthread.php?threadid=**
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost<http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> will
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on it.  They
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> horrid bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> while
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> impressive returns.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> as payment for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit here,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> another, "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> onto the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> plausible denial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get, in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the form of a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> but that can be
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> large number of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> live on a country
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I pick
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> books,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> instant-success headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this "new
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> to say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Chattanooga virtual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>>>> Google reads my email!
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>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>>>>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>>>>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>>>>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>>>>>>>>> ______________________________**_________________
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>>>>>>>>>
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>
>
> --
> Aaron Welch
> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
> 423-505-9999
> n2nightfall at gmail.com
> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>
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