[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Stephen Kraus ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 21:36:06 UTC 2013


I guess I don't, since I'm talking theory...

Well, I think that is enough for me today.
On Apr 15, 2013 4:09 PM, "Aaron Welch" <n2nightfall at gmail.com> wrote:

> I am very sad that you would send me an email stating all that stuff.  It
> just shows how little you understand about how economics actually works in
> a capitalist economy in the digital age.  Information is power and is more
> valuable than money in today's economy.
>
> -AW
>
> On Apr 15, 2013, at 2:57 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> If you are depending on media organizations for financial advice,
> specifically CNN, MSNBC, Fox, etc, then I can understand why you might be
> upset with economic science. This is pretty common for all the sciences,
> people would rather ask their politicians or news organizations if the
> Theory of Evolution/Big Bang Theory/ Global Warming is real than the actual
> scientists.
>
> However, the assumption that a system we create and change is totally
> within our control is rather false, otherwise car accidents would be a
> thing of the past and house fires would be a lot less common. Every little
> variable counts, and economics is no different, you could be as rich as you
> want and there is a good chance that things can go totally against you due
> to minor changes outside your control.
>
> Once again, Chaos Theory helps us understand why that is.
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 2:30 PM, Aaron Welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Apples and oranges Stephen.  There is no psychological element to climate
>> change.  Human behavior cannot immediately effect a total collapse of the
>> climate.  The climate system functions without our input and the economy is
>> driven by our choices and values.
>>
>> -AW
>>
>> On Apr 15, 2013, at 1:05 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> Lets put it this way:
>>
>> When the Glass Steagall Act was struck down, it was already estimated by
>> many economists that it would lead to a financial crisis in the future, and
>> while it took some time for it to happen and they couldn't estimated
>> EXACTLY what would happen.
>>
>> Same thing could be said of Climate Change: Science has been proclaiming
>> it would happen for years, with much booing and anger from the public at
>> large, but now we are starting to see the effects and the models are
>> beginning to line up, doesn't make climate science any less valid.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> "Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)"
>>> Are you attempting a forecast? To the stake!
>>> (Reminds me also that I love the new player in the weather site and api
>>> business: forecast.io )
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM, kitepilot at kitepilot.com <
>>> kitepilot at kitepilot.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> From economics to aviation...
>>>> Pilots *KNOW* that the weather forecast is nothing else than a
>>>> horoscope with numbers.
>>>> <duck>
>>>> Does that equalize the 'Science of Economy' with the 'Science of
>>>> Astrology'?
>>>> Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)
>>>> </duck>
>>>> ET
>>>>
>>>> Randy Yates writes:
>>>>
>>>>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of them.
>>>>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts
>>>>> about
>>>>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super computer
>>>>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors that
>>>>> come
>>>>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural
>>>>> disasters
>>>>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn economics
>>>>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about something.
>>>>> All
>>>>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't see
>>>>> it
>>>>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk about
>>>>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists
>>>>>> did
>>>>>> actually.
>>>>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all, they
>>>>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that they
>>>>>> could
>>>>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a quick
>>>>>> buck.
>>>>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>>>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place to
>>>>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing
>>>>>> intentional
>>>>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all experts
>>>>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is very
>>>>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong at
>>>>>> some
>>>>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying
>>>>>> systems like
>>>>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing despite
>>>>>> their
>>>>>> credentials'
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that much
>>>>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first
>>>>>>> stock
>>>>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth today
>>>>>>> after
>>>>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>>>> -AW
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>
>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?**q=inventor%20committed%20to%**
>>>>>>>> 20mental%20institution<https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution>
>>>>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall things
>>>>>>>> based
>>>>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some point
>>>>>>>> you
>>>>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You
>>>>>>>> die, you
>>>>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my biggest
>>>>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask
>>>>>>>> yet, is if
>>>>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What
>>>>>>>> happens when
>>>>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point?
>>>>>>>> Bitcoins
>>>>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's
>>>>>>>> questions
>>>>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this
>>>>>>>> whole
>>>>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember back
>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs you
>>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people
>>>>>>>>>>> here,
>>>>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are
>>>>>>>>>>> usually
>>>>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I mean
>>>>>>>>>>> look
>>>>>>>>>>> at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years ago,
>>>>>>>>>>> the amount
>>>>>>>>>>> he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of thousands
>>>>>>>>>>> of dollars!
>>>>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that
>>>>>>>>>>> bad.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors criticize
>>>>>>>>>>>> it.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who spend
>>>>>>>>>>>> their
>>>>>>>>>>>> entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say its a
>>>>>>>>>>>> waste and
>>>>>>>>>>>> it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions
>>>>>>>>>>>> into account.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and it
>>>>>>>>>>>> is
>>>>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't matter
>>>>>>>>>>>> how often
>>>>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value for
>>>>>>>>>>>> long or
>>>>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and listen
>>>>>>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to reflect
>>>>>>>>>>>> a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.**com/showthread.php?threadid=**
>>>>>>>>>>>> 3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost<http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that will
>>>>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research on
>>>>>>>>>>>>> it.  They
>>>>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some horrid
>>>>>>>>>>>>> bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually
>>>>>>>>>>>>> incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> while
>>>>>>>>>>>>> now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some
>>>>>>>>>>>>> impressive returns.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it as
>>>>>>>>>>>>> a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it as
>>>>>>>>>>>>> a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin as
>>>>>>>>>>>>> payment for
>>>>>>>>>>>>> my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit here,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or another,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out onto
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> plausible denial
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get, in
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> the form of a
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced, but
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that can be
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> for the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> large number of
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I live
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> on a country
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I pick
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> books,
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet instant-success
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this "new
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want to
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> say
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man by
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my Chattanooga
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> virtual
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>>>>> Google reads my email!
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>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> --
>>>>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>>>>>>> ______________________________**_________________
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>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Google reads my email!
>>>>>
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