[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Lynn Dixon boodaddy at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 17:07:28 UTC 2013


Not to change the argument, but I think most everyone agrees Climate Change
does indeed happen.  Its man-caused Global Warming that causes much debate.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 1:05 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Lets put it this way:
>
> When the Glass Steagall Act was struck down, it was already estimated by
> many economists that it would lead to a financial crisis in the future, and
> while it took some time for it to happen and they couldn't estimated
> EXACTLY what would happen.
>
> Same thing could be said of Climate Change: Science has been proclaiming
> it would happen for years, with much booing and anger from the public at
> large, but now we are starting to see the effects and the models are
> beginning to line up, doesn't make climate science any less valid.
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> "Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)"
>> Are you attempting a forecast? To the stake!
>> (Reminds me also that I love the new player in the weather site and api
>> business: forecast.io )
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM, kitepilot at kitepilot.com <
>> kitepilot at kitepilot.com> wrote:
>>
>>> From economics to aviation...
>>> Pilots *KNOW* that the weather forecast is nothing else than a horoscope
>>> with numbers.
>>> <duck>
>>> Does that equalize the 'Science of Economy' with the 'Science of
>>> Astrology'?
>>> Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)
>>> </duck>
>>> ET
>>>
>>> Randy Yates writes:
>>>
>>>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of them.
>>>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts
>>>> about
>>>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super computer
>>>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors that
>>>> come
>>>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural
>>>> disasters
>>>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn economics
>>>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about something. All
>>>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't see
>>>> it
>>>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk about
>>>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists
>>>>> did
>>>>> actually.
>>>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all, they
>>>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that they
>>>>> could
>>>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a quick
>>>>> buck.
>>>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place to
>>>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing
>>>>> intentional
>>>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all experts
>>>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is very
>>>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong at
>>>>> some
>>>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying systems
>>>>> like
>>>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing despite
>>>>> their
>>>>> credentials'
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that much
>>>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first
>>>>>> stock
>>>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth today
>>>>>> after
>>>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>>> -AW
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?**q=inventor%20committed%20to%**
>>>>>>> 20mental%20institution<https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution>
>>>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall things
>>>>>>> based
>>>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some point you
>>>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You die,
>>>>>>> you
>>>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my biggest
>>>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask yet,
>>>>>>> is if
>>>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What
>>>>>>> happens when
>>>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point? Bitcoins
>>>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's
>>>>>>> questions
>>>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this whole
>>>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember back
>>>>>>> to
>>>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs you
>>>>>>> of
>>>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people
>>>>>>>>>> here,
>>>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are
>>>>>>>>>> usually
>>>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I mean
>>>>>>>>>> look
>>>>>>>>>> at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years ago,
>>>>>>>>>> the amount
>>>>>>>>>> he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of thousands of
>>>>>>>>>> dollars!
>>>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that bad.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors criticize
>>>>>>>>>>> it.
>>>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who spend
>>>>>>>>>>> their
>>>>>>>>>>> entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say its a
>>>>>>>>>>> waste and
>>>>>>>>>>> it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions
>>>>>>>>>>> into account.
>>>>>>>>>>> Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and it is
>>>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't matter
>>>>>>>>>>> how often
>>>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value for
>>>>>>>>>>> long or
>>>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and listen to
>>>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to reflect
>>>>>>>>>>> a lot of
>>>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.**com/showthread.php?threadid=**
>>>>>>>>>>> 3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost<http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that will
>>>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research on
>>>>>>>>>>>> it.  They
>>>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some horrid
>>>>>>>>>>>> bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually
>>>>>>>>>>>> incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for a
>>>>>>>>>>>> while
>>>>>>>>>>>> now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some
>>>>>>>>>>>> impressive returns.
>>>>>>>>>>>>  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it as a
>>>>>>>>>>>> vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it as
>>>>>>>>>>>> a vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>>> exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin as
>>>>>>>>>>>> payment for
>>>>>>>>>>>> my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit here, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or another,
>>>>>>>>>>>>> "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd
>>>>>>>>>>>>> promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out onto
>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for
>>>>>>>>>>>>> plausible denial
>>>>>>>>>>>>> when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get, in
>>>>>>>>>>>>> the form of a
>>>>>>>>>>>>> cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced, but
>>>>>>>>>>>>> that can be
>>>>>>>>>>>>> shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait for
>>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very large
>>>>>>>>>>>>> number of
>>>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I live
>>>>>>>>>>>>> on a country
>>>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I pick
>>>>>>>>>>>>> them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And
>>>>>>>>>>>>> books,
>>>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet instant-success
>>>>>>>>>>>>> headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this "new
>>>>>>>>>>>>> money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want to
>>>>>>>>>>>>> say
>>>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly
>>>>>>>>>>>>> ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man by
>>>>>>>>>>>>> leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my Chattanooga
>>>>>>>>>>>>> virtual
>>>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> --
>>>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
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>>>> --
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>>>>
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