[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Stephen Kraus ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 17:05:27 UTC 2013


Lets put it this way:

When the Glass Steagall Act was struck down, it was already estimated by
many economists that it would lead to a financial crisis in the future, and
while it took some time for it to happen and they couldn't estimated
EXACTLY what would happen.

Same thing could be said of Climate Change: Science has been proclaiming it
would happen for years, with much booing and anger from the public at
large, but now we are starting to see the effects and the models are
beginning to line up, doesn't make climate science any less valid.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:37 PM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com> wrote:

> "Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)"
> Are you attempting a forecast? To the stake!
> (Reminds me also that I love the new player in the weather site and api
> business: forecast.io )
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:31 PM, kitepilot at kitepilot.com <
> kitepilot at kitepilot.com> wrote:
>
>> From economics to aviation...
>> Pilots *KNOW* that the weather forecast is nothing else than a horoscope
>> with numbers.
>> <duck>
>> Does that equalize the 'Science of Economy' with the 'Science of
>> Astrology'?
>> Let the firestorm begin!   ;-)
>> </duck>
>> ET
>>
>> Randy Yates writes:
>>
>>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of them.
>>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts about
>>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super computer
>>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors that
>>> come
>>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural disasters
>>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn economics
>>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about something. All
>>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't see it
>>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk about
>>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>>
>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did
>>>> actually.
>>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all, they
>>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that they
>>>> could
>>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a quick
>>>> buck.
>>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place to
>>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing
>>>> intentional
>>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all experts
>>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is very
>>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong at
>>>> some
>>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying systems
>>>> like
>>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing despite
>>>> their
>>>> credentials'
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that much
>>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first stock
>>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth today
>>>>> after
>>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>> -AW
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?**q=inventor%20committed%20to%**
>>>>>> 20mental%20institution<https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution>
>>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall things
>>>>>> based
>>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some point you
>>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You die,
>>>>>> you
>>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my biggest
>>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask yet,
>>>>>> is if
>>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What happens
>>>>>> when
>>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point? Bitcoins
>>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's
>>>>>> questions
>>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this whole
>>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember back to
>>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs you of
>>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people here,
>>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are
>>>>>>>>> usually
>>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I mean
>>>>>>>>> look
>>>>>>>>> at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years ago,
>>>>>>>>> the amount
>>>>>>>>> he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of thousands of
>>>>>>>>> dollars!
>>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that bad.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors criticize
>>>>>>>>>> it.
>>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who spend
>>>>>>>>>> their
>>>>>>>>>> entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say its a
>>>>>>>>>> waste and
>>>>>>>>>> it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions into
>>>>>>>>>> account.
>>>>>>>>>> Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and it is
>>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't matter
>>>>>>>>>> how often
>>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value for
>>>>>>>>>> long or
>>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and listen to
>>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to reflect a
>>>>>>>>>> lot of
>>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.**com/showthread.php?threadid=**
>>>>>>>>>> 3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost<http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that will
>>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research on
>>>>>>>>>>> it.  They
>>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some horrid
>>>>>>>>>>> bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually
>>>>>>>>>>> incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for a
>>>>>>>>>>> while
>>>>>>>>>>> now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some
>>>>>>>>>>> impressive returns.
>>>>>>>>>>>  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it as a
>>>>>>>>>>> vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>> exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it as a
>>>>>>>>>>> vehicle of
>>>>>>>>>>> exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin as
>>>>>>>>>>> payment for
>>>>>>>>>>> my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit here, and
>>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or another,
>>>>>>>>>>>> "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd
>>>>>>>>>>>> promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.
>>>>>>>>>>>>  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out onto
>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>> field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for
>>>>>>>>>>>> plausible denial
>>>>>>>>>>>> when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get, in the
>>>>>>>>>>>> form of a
>>>>>>>>>>>> cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced, but
>>>>>>>>>>>> that can be
>>>>>>>>>>>> shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the
>>>>>>>>>>>> supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait for
>>>>>>>>>>>> the
>>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very large
>>>>>>>>>>>> number of
>>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I live on
>>>>>>>>>>>> a country
>>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I pick
>>>>>>>>>>>> them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And books,
>>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet instant-success
>>>>>>>>>>>> headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this "new
>>>>>>>>>>>> money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want to say
>>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly
>>>>>>>>>>>> ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man by
>>>>>>>>>>>> leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my Chattanooga
>>>>>>>>>>>> virtual
>>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
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>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
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>>>>>
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