[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Lynn Dixon boodaddy at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 16:57:48 UTC 2013


I think what Randy is saying is that a "science" that is based upon
predictions, with which those variables can be influenced by the mere
prediction itself is not in fact a "science".

Economics is easy to "massage" your predictions into reality, especially if
you are in control of a currency, like the Fed.

The fact that some "highly respected economist" can make a public
prediction is in fact altering the variables to coax that prediction into
becoming a reality is what makes stuff like "economic sciences" a load of
horse hockey.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 12:53 PM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Difficulty to predict is a sure thing with economics, any predictions
> based on a system where the variables are constantly changes is always
> difficult to predict, however, you can predict trends based on rules in the
> system (regulations and current events) to some point of reliability,
> granted with a wide margin of error.
>
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:34 AM, Randy Yates <lpcustom at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> There's very few sciences that I don't trust, economics is one of them.
>> Call it backward thinking if you want, but I find economics experts about
>> as credible as big foot experts. I wouldn't even trust a super computer
>> mining big data to predict the economy. There's too many factors that come
>> into play to change it. There's the obvious things like natural disasters
>> and the outbreak of war, but there's also events like a damn economics
>> expert making a TV appearance or writing an article about something. All
>> those things can alter the natural flow of the economy. So I don't see it
>> as a very accurate science. A physicists can't get on TV and talk about
>> gravity and cause gravity to change its behavior.
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did
>>> actually.
>>>
>>> I am in no way saying the banking industry is perfect, after all, they
>>> purposely wanted the removal of the Glass-Steagall Act so that they could
>>> make trades and investments they knew were bad just to make a quick buck.
>>> Its why regulation and deregulation is a double edged sword, some
>>> regulations are heavy handed sure, but some were also put in place to
>>> protect people and prevent overzealous companies from causing intentional
>>> harm for the sake of profit.
>>>
>>> Randy, c'mon now. So I guess based on that logic, any and all experts
>>> should be dismissed as apparently they have not a clue? That is very
>>> backwards thinking. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone is wrong at some
>>> point in time, that is not the same as saying 'People studying systems like
>>> an economy as a science are wrong because they know nothing despite their
>>> credentials'
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:09 AM, Aaron welch <n2nightfall at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> Josh, the difficulty would increase to make finding blocks that much
>>>> harder and the value that much higher.  Imagine it like the first stock
>>>> certificate for GE or Coke and how much those would be worth today after
>>>> all the stock splits.
>>>>
>>>> -AW
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:47 AM, Joshua Estes <f1gm3nt at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.google.com/search?q=inventor%20committed%20to%20mental%20institution
>>>>>
>>>>> Even the smartest people are wrong some of the time.
>>>>>
>>>>> 1: When you start out learning something say economics, you read
>>>>> everything you can on the subject. Eventually you can recall things based
>>>>> on previous work or come up with your own theories. At some point you
>>>>> believe in your idea so strongly that no one else is right. You die, you
>>>>> leave your legacy of books and papers behind.
>>>>> Goto 1;
>>>>>
>>>>> This process repeats itself over and over again. One of my biggest
>>>>> questions I have with bitcoins, which I haven't bothered to ask yet, is if
>>>>> each block contains transactions that are to be tracked. What happens when
>>>>> the last block is found? Does the system fail at that point? Bitcoins
>>>>> interest me because it makes me ask questions, other people's questions
>>>>> about bitcoins interest me as well. Nothing is set yet and this whole
>>>>> "experiment" could fail.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> - Joshua Estes
>>>>>
>>>>> @JoshuaEstes
>>>>>
>>>>> "If you live periods of your life in misery, when you remember back to
>>>>> those times, all you'll remember is the misery. The misery robs you of
>>>>> great memories you could otherwise be making."
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:27 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com
>>>>> > wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Randy, thank you, yes, deflation.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:20 AM, Randy Yates <lpcustom at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>> Isn't that rapid deflation?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:18 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> And Lynn, I think you are probably one of the smartest people here,
>>>>>>>> so I find it hard to criticize your argument because they are usually
>>>>>>>> fairly well thought out.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> My other big thing with Bitcoins is the rapid inflation. I mean
>>>>>>>> look at that guy who paid for a pizza in bitcoins a couple years ago, the
>>>>>>>> amount he paid for the pizza would now be worth hundreds of thousands of
>>>>>>>> dollars!
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Even inflation from the early 1900s to now isn't nearly that bad.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 10:10 AM, Stephen Kraus <
>>>>>>>> ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I criticize it because numerous economics professors criticize it.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Look, I'm all for you doing Bitcoin, its your time and your
>>>>>>>>> processing power, not mine.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> But lets be perfectly honest: When a bunch of people who spend
>>>>>>>>> their entire lives studying economic systems inside and out say its a waste
>>>>>>>>> and it will lead nowhere, I'm of the mind to take their opinions into
>>>>>>>>> account. Especially when a Nobel Laureate is saying so.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Right now, I've watched the Bitcoin trends from Mt. Gox and it is
>>>>>>>>> bouncy as hell, repeatedly bubbles then pops. It doesn't matter how often
>>>>>>>>> it spikes if it cannot stay consistent at a certain value for long or
>>>>>>>>> trends rapidly up and down.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Just read this thread, ignore some of the goofiness and listen to
>>>>>>>>> some of the people in it. I find their opinions seem to reflect a lot of
>>>>>>>>> people I know in the economics fields:
>>>>>>>>> http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3543334&pagenumber=70#lastpost
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 9:29 AM, Lynn Dixon <boodaddy at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> What is surprising to me is the vast number of people that will
>>>>>>>>>> jump in and criticize the currency after doing no research on it.  They
>>>>>>>>>> will read a few articles on the web, or maybe even some horrid bitcointalk
>>>>>>>>>> forum posts and simply make an assumption that is usually incorrect.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> The currency works, and works well. I have been mining for a
>>>>>>>>>> while now, nearly two years, and I have personally made some impressive
>>>>>>>>>> returns.  I have also used the currency quite a bit. I have used it as a
>>>>>>>>>> vehicle of exchange when dealing with foreign currency, I have used it as a
>>>>>>>>>> vehicle of exchange for goods and services, and I even accept bitcoin as
>>>>>>>>>> payment for my web hosting company.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 8:02 AM, Mike Robinson <
>>>>>>>>>> miker at sundialservices.com> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> These are just my thoughts – but I see a bully pulpit here, and
>>>>>>>>>>> I'll be brief.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> If you wanted to fleece a bunch of nerds, how would you do it?
>>>>>>>>>>>  Well, first of all, you'd promise them, one way or another, "easy money."
>>>>>>>>>>>  In fact, knowing that many of them spend hours each day in
>>>>>>>>>>> gam-environments where guns never run out of ammo, you'd promise them "make
>>>>>>>>>>> your own money."  An altogether synthetic currency system.  "World Money,
>>>>>>>>>>> Release 2.0."
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> You'd slow-roll the whole thing.  Just toss the ball out onto
>>>>>>>>>>> the field almost unmentioned.  Aside from the obvious need for plausible
>>>>>>>>>>> denial when the sheet hits the fan, you're playing hard to get, in the form
>>>>>>>>>>> of a cryptographic-based puzzle that can only be brute-forced, but that can
>>>>>>>>>>> be shown to be solvable.  Add a few more promises – that the supply of this
>>>>>>>>>>> "money" will always be limited (never mind how) – and wait for the
>>>>>>>>>>> Powerball Effect to take hold of its own accord.  A very large number of
>>>>>>>>>>> paper cards are thrown away near my driveway, because I live on a country
>>>>>>>>>>> road about a quarter-mile from a convenience store.  I pick them up by the
>>>>>>>>>>> hundreds.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> Meanwhile, start selling supplies .. for real money.  And books,
>>>>>>>>>>> of course.  Every now and then, grab a quiet instant-success headline, say
>>>>>>>>>>> by selling a Ferrari (a Ford will NOT do ...) for this "new money."  Then
>>>>>>>>>>> wait.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> It's a Crowd Psychology 101 play, people, and I just want to say
>>>>>>>>>>> .. there are some things in this ol' world that are truly ancient, and
>>>>>>>>>>> finding new and creative ways to rip off your fellow-man by leveraging his
>>>>>>>>>>> own gullibility is one of them.  I don't want my Chattanooga virtual
>>>>>>>>>>> friends to be among those many that will eventually be hurt.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> #undef soapbox .. Thank you.
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>> – Mike Robinson
>>>>>>>>>>> (615) 268-3829
>>>>>>>>>>> _______________________________________________
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>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>
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>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Aaron Welch
>>>> Chief Mechanic @ Geek Ventures
>>>> 423-505-9999
>>>> n2nightfall at gmail.com
>>>> "Enabling people to do great things with their own ideas."
>>>>
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