[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

Stephen Kraus ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 15:36:58 UTC 2013


Nice link James, I'll have to check that out further.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:34 AM, James Nylen <jnylen at gmail.com> wrote:

> This is very interesting reading.  On the subject of learning about and
> working against cognitive biases, I also like the Center for Applied
> Rationality, http://appliedrationality.org/.
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:31 AM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> This is even more off topic, but people are really bad at predicting the
>> future (often worse than a coin toss). This is one of the issues that
>> the Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program is trying to work on. (Best
>> place to learn about it is: http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=87which is one of the teams.) Some of these teams are predicting events well
>> due to training regarding biases, some research, and a fair number of
>> people.
>>
>> Also on the subject, although not always the best source, generally a
>> good lay source:
>> http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did
>>> actually.
>>
>>
>>
>>
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>
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