[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

James Nylen jnylen at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 15:34:54 UTC 2013


This is very interesting reading.  On the subject of learning about and
working against cognitive biases, I also like the Center for Applied
Rationality, http://appliedrationality.org/.


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:31 AM, William Wade <willm.wade at gmail.com> wrote:

> This is even more off topic, but people are really bad at predicting the
> future (often worse than a coin toss). This is one of the issues that
> the Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program is trying to work on. (Best
> place to learn about it is: http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=87which is one of the teams.) Some of these teams are predicting events well
> due to training regarding biases, some research, and a fair number of
> people.
>
> Also on the subject, although not always the best source, generally a good
> lay source:
> http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/
>
>
> On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did
>> actually.
>
>
>
>
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