[Chugalug] A comment on the Bitcoin .. fraud

William Wade willm.wade at gmail.com
Mon Apr 15 15:31:55 UTC 2013


This is even more off topic, but people are really bad at predicting the
future (often worse than a coin toss). This is one of the issues that
the Aggregative Contingent Estimation Program is trying to work on. (Best
place to learn about it is: http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=87 which
is one of the teams.) Some of these teams are predicting events well due to
training regarding biases, some research, and a fair number of people.

Also on the subject, although not always the best source, generally a good
lay source:
http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/14/new-freakonomics-radio-podcast-the-folly-of-prediction/


On Mon, Apr 15, 2013 at 11:17 AM, Stephen Kraus <ub3ratl4sf00 at gmail.com>wrote:

> Paul Krugman actually predicted the housing crisis. A few economists did
> actually.
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